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Oil Math

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      It still ain't rocket science, duh!

      Supply and demand is a very simple equation. It always determines price in the long run. There's a lot of noise and manipulation, but when the fundamentals show up it's game over. When the glut gets bigger the price falls, and only the lowest cost producers survive.

      What will the US do to keep its oil industry profitable? Nuke Saudi Arabia? Start WW3? Puhleese, the US needs to stop underestimating everybody. If you've ever been to a souk and tried to haggle, you know what I mean.

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      OPEC Jawboning Ain't Workin' No Mo'

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          and more about Peter Schiff, and a problematic silver lining

          The OPEC bluff has been called. They aren't reducing the glut. The price must slide from now on if not crash right away. So the silver lining for renewables around the dark cloud of relatively high oil priceis going to vanish. They were becoming competitive fast, but their progress slows down when the oil price falls. However, the most painful effect will be on the banking system, because so much money has been loaned to the US oil industry. That will be an important part of the big economic decline of the coming years.

          I just want to mention Peter Schiff again, because he can slice and dice an argument like nobody. He goes at it from all sides, and when he's finished, there's nothing more you need to know about it.

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          The Importance Of Macro

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              I've noticed that Business - or Economics - is low on the site list of subjects. We care most about who and what's close to us, but understanding the big - macro - picture is important, because the bigger events affect the local and personal. When we do look deeper into why things happen however, we start to see how much is connected to how much else. Understanding the macro picture is important also because then we can see what's likely to happen also on our own micro level. There are plenty of fearmongers and demagogues, so one needs to sort out what makes sense, use own judgment. It may feel strange to think about stuff we never cared about before, but when one ges into it and educates oneself, it's really interesting!

              If you don't, you may be sorry you didn't one day...

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              So What's Energy For

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                  fuelling progress or dirty geopolitics?

                  It should be about the former of course, but the latter is cancelling out the former. That ugly example Syria is about pipelines.

                  There's something sooo much deeper going on than OPEC jawboning vs US shale. The Syria, Yemen and Venezuela situations exist only to prop up the oil price so that otherwise unprofitable - US and Canadian - producers can survive. That's made possible with cheap Fed money, but that house of cards will collapse as soon as there are adverse economic winds stronger than a Septemer breeze that's no longer a warm summer breeze.

                  So there's a huuuge fundamental shift coming. The last economic events were only a forewarning of what's to come.

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                  Climbdowns, And It's Not About The Pols

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                      It's about the central banksters, duh! (And geopolitics of course)

                      Ther's no appetite for the BAT - border adjustment tax, surprise surprise! It's been a while since election and inauguration, and people have started to think. Most people already have less money to spend. Making everything more expensive would be disastrous.

                      Also you don't start to mess with the two biggest buyers of what you make. Take it from this non-economist: Strengthen NAFTA by making North America one energy area in order to better withstand OPEC and Russky onslaught. Fix Venezuela and make it and Colombia part of at first the energy area so that there's competition between them and Canada about providing the heavy oil that the US needs. Then American WTI gets protected against whatever happens with Eurasian Brent. The two elements that need to be NAFTA'd are energy and IT. North America needs to become a complete economic area that spreads through all Latin America too eventually. Transporting stuff across the huge world oceans makes no sense if the raw materials and quality products exist in one's own hemisphere. The USA can't afford the geopolitcal meddling and mayhem in Eurasia. That's sensible "protectionism and de-globalization", pulling out of the unaffordable and illusory influence efforts in Eurasia and making the whole American Continent prosperous. China is doing that job in Eurasia.

                      I got the BAT news from Peter Schiff this morning. He was one of few who warned - and it seems that even fewer listened - about 2008. MSM Bubblevision sometimes have had contrarians like PS on to make fun of them. Not any more. Trumphoria is ending, and worried investors are looking for alternatives like Bitcoin.

                      There's a symbiotic relationship between pols and central banksters. Pols climb down and change their tune all the time, and the central banksters pretend that they're in control while we slide toward the cliff edge. They're working hard at keeping us uninformed and ignorant. We don't have to be though...

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                      Budget Madness

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                          The math is very simple, and it doesn't add up

                          Pols are sales people. When their wonderful product stops working, they're nowhere to be found.

                          The govt can't create economic growth short term. When the govt pros predict 1.8%, the pols keep on insisting that 3% can happen!? The positive effects of tax cuts or whatever take a long time, many years, to take effect. Before that happens, the debt burden becomes unbearable. The already planned debt increase is more than big enough. Adding more debt is insanity and can only end very badly.

                          It's politically impossible to take away the money people depend on. Take away Meals on Wheels and give to the already bloated military? Yeah right, that'll work!

                          The Chumpster can come home full of glory and with a shining halo, but it will all be gone by the time he gets to the bottom of the airplane steps, because he'll come back to an extremely difficult reality .

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                          The Repubs See Only One Side

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                              and dystopy

                              Big govt in the USA is really Corporatism, with a totally incestuous relationship between pols and biz. This goes for the whole world, but more so in the US than anywhere else, supposedly the most Capitalistic of all countries. The spiders in the web are the central banksters who manipulate the economy. So there is no free market and no economic growth, only debt creation.

                              Corporatism is as bad as Laissez-faire, because the money people rule unhindered and suck wealth out of the economy and impoverish people, There's no balance, it's not stable, and will end, probably badly.

                              If you dabble in the alt-economics contrarian world like I do, you'll probably run into Steve St Angelo and Gail Tverberg. Steve does some good analysis, but the problem with both of them is that they feed on the general negative end-of-the-world sentiment. They insist that we're running out of energy fast. They haven't noticed that orange ball in the sky which isn't going away very soon.

                              Sorry folks, I'm an incurable optimist!


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                              When Smart People Say Stupid Things

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                                  Bill Bonner has been doing economics and finance for decades, but said in an interview that the USD has been the reserve currency for so long because of luck. After the gold standard was abandoned in 1971, energy, oil, became the store of value. A barrel of oil does exactly the same whether it cost 100$ or 30. The deal was that OPEC could set the price as long as it was priced in USD, and excess profits have to be parked in US banks or assets. That's waning now, but that's been one of the fundaments of the economic world order for almost half a century.

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                                  Eight Individuals Possess More Wealth Than More Than Half Of Humanity

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                                      GLOBAL WEALTH INEQUALITY AFFECTS EVERYONE IN THE WORLD.

                                      I have put this post in the business category, but it does seem it could fit into the "Social Justice" category as well.

                                      The wealthiest 1% of people worldwide have more wealth than everyone else combined.

                                      By Thomas Frolich

                                      We all know that large U.S. companies avoid billions in taxes each year on cash held in offshore bank accounts.

                                      The current level of global wealth inequality, which is widely expected to widen under reforms proposed by President Donald Trump and congressional leaders, is unprecedented. According to anti-poverty organization Oxfam America, just eight individuals possess more wealth than 3.6 billion people — half of humanity. The wealthiest 1% of people worldwide have more wealth than everyone else combined.

                                      Against this backdrop, tax avoidance is especially troubling. The 50 largest public U.S. companies currently have a combined $1.6 trillion stashed in accounts and assets overseas — according to new analysis by Oxfam. Apple is the leader, with $200.1 billion held in foreign bank accounts.

                                      Click here to see the 50 U.S. companies stashing $1.6 trillion overseas.

                                      The problem, he explained, is that with their enormous lobbying efforts, the political influence wielded by these companies ensures large corporations can continue to take advantage of tax loopholes, while ordinary Americans and small businesses cannot.

                                      http://247wallst.com/special-report/2017/04/12/com...

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