Lining up for early voting in Raleigh, N.C., in 2016. Midterm elections generally attract fewer voters than those in presidential years, so small shifts in who shows up can have a big effect. Gerry Broome/Associated Press
Looks to me like the midterms will show that the resistance is paying off, at least with suburban white voters. Perhaps suppression tactics in those states that work to disenfranchise voters of color can explain why resistance has not been as successful with minorities; and I also wonder if the resistance against Trump didn't do enough to show how strongly Trump's Administration is harmful to minority populations.
Right now, the polls are showing enthusiasm from democratic voters of all ages, and even in those states that have made it difficult to vote, people on the Left are lining up in large numbers in order to cast their votes. Older voters look to be dominating the midterm numbers as they have in the past, but Democrats might show up in a really rare phenomenon - that of a higher turnout than Republicans. If what looks to be a Democratic surge continues, it could mean the difference between a fairly close contest for control of the House or gains of forty plus seats.
Let us hope for a sweeping victory!
A wide range of evidence indicates that Democratic voters are poised to vote in numbers unseen in a midterm election in at least a decade.
Democrats have largely erased the turnout deficit that hobbled them during the Obama presidency, according to results from more than 50 New York Times Upshot/Siena College polls of the most competitive House battleground districts.
Democrats may even be poised to post higher turnout than Republicans, a rarity, in many relatively white suburban districts on Nov. 6.
But it’s not clear if this blue turnout surge will extend much further, particularly among young and nonwhite voters. Whether Democrats turn out broadly could make the difference between a fairly close fight for control of the House and sweeping Democratic gains of 40 or more seats.
Turnout is always important, but it varies more in lower-turnout elections, like a midterm, meaning that even modest shifts in enthusiasm can transform the electorate. It is a particularly challenging question this year, in part because the turnout in recent midterm elections has been so low and so [the] Republican [lead.]
Across our polls, 58 percent of white registered voters say they’re “almost certain” to vote, compared with 50 percent of black registered voters and 43 percent of Hispanic voters. These figures are somewhat lower than in other surveys, in part because the Times/Siena surveys make a considerable effort to reach lower-turnout voters who respond to polls in low numbers.
Young voters represent a larger share of voters than they would with a 2014 turnout, but they still lag a presidential electorate; just 38 percent of registered voters who are 18 to 34 years say they’re almost certain to vote, compared with 62 percent of those over age 65.
Most important, 16 percent of registered voters who are 18 to 34 tell us they’re not very likely to vote or not at all likely to vote, a rare choice among the generally politically engaged people who agree to take telephone surveys. This compares with just 4 percent of those over age 65.
It is entirely possible that these generational and racial turnout gaps will narrow over the election’s final weeks, as the campaigns work to mobilize irregular voters. There may also be individual races or states, like Georgia, where black voters turn out in large numbers. But there is no historical precedent for those gaps to close to the extent they do in a presidential election, at least not nationwide. Similarly, Democrats have not enjoyed a particularly strong turnout among young and nonwhite voters in most of the special and general elections since Donald J. Trump won the presidency.
Yet Democrats have still managed to fare extremely well in Trump-era special and general elections, in no small part because of a surge in well-educated voters. That’s what the Times/Siena polling shows as well.
Over all, college-educated Americans represent 47 percent of likely voters in the districts we’ve polled, well above their 38 percent share of registered voters. And white voters without a degree — the president’s base — slip to 41 percent of the likely electorate, down from their 45 percent share of registered voters.
If Democrats can lure additional young and nonwhite voters off the sidelines and out of the undecided column, the party could be poised to break through in many of the districts where they’ve struggled the most to this point.